Evans, M & Sommerville, S (2005) Designing Tomorrow: A Methodology for Future Orientated Product Design. Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005

Designing Tomorrow: A Methodology for Future Orientated Product Design Martyn Evans* & Simon Sommerville** Keywords: design forecasting, futures, design activity, scenario planning Abstract Design forecasting approaches supplement the activities of the product designer by providing a framework for developing, understanding and communicating future scenarios. The paper explores the approaches of design forecasting and the methods designers employ to develop future scenarios. These insights are utilised within the design process, to inform, validate and endorse design decisions. A forecasting model developed by the authors is presented and its application to product design discussed. Analogies between the design process and forecasting activities are considered. Time specific, client focussed, user aware design processes are compared to client led, user focussed, time flexible forecasting activities. This interrelationship is explored and in particular how changes to ‘inputs’ of these processes can affect the focus of these activities. Introduction In today’s rapidly changing world, many people believe that it is becoming almost impossible to plan for the future. We read everywhere about rapid and constant change and, therefore, the increasing unpredictably of the future. The common feature is that the future is uncertain. This is something that there is agreement. This does not mean that we should not attempt to prepare for the future, on the contrary, we should engage fully with activities that allow us to prepare for the non-preparable. Through this engagement we may be able to identify and develop strategies that allow organisations to consider how they may be an integral element of such futures (Coughlan & Prokopoff, 2004; Lindgren & Bandhold, 2003). Designers are essential stakeholders in forecasting process as they envision the products and services that will populate our future. As such, they are essential contributors to the future. Their research, development and communication activities can assist in the formulation of organisational strategy and provides a rich resource when considering approaches to the future, and what it might hold. There are a number of identified attitudes to the future, and these are adopted by organisations during strategy development (Didsbury 1996): - Providential/Fatalistic: what will be will be - Conventional: tomorrow will be much like today - Pessimism: decline from past ‘Golden Age’ Presented at: Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005 - Discontinuity: the future will be nothing like the present Optimism: faith in progress/technology cures all Unknowable: futile to attempt to go beyond the present Futurist: tempered optimism/the future is rich with possibility resulting from human planning and action A Strategic Future Designers’ ability to transform abstract theories into tangible entities provides an extremely useful tool for business. Organisations utilise these skills when considering the future, employing designers not only in the creation of future products and services, but in the consideration of how the future may be played out. With the help of forecasting and scenario planning techniques, designers provide organisations with a link between the future and strategy. Coupling design process experts with business content experts creates a capacity to envision and realise futures that are both desirable for people and viable for organisations (Coughlan & Prokopoff 2004). The input of design in the development of organisational strategy is not consistently employed. In some instances, design plays a pivotal role in formulating strategy, for example in such forward thinking organisations as Dyson and Apple. Yet there are many organisations where design is not seen appropriate to operate at strategic or board level (Press & Cooper 2003). Strategies create futures - futures cannot be determined by analysis alone. The word strategy describes ‘an underlying logic beneath the flow of decisions which creates the future’ (Bruce & Bessant 2002). Designers play a key role in providing firms with raw material for decision making. If they are performing their proper function they open ‘doors of opportunity’. They help decision makers explore alternative futures. Their task is to invent, discover and communicate ways to advance the collective sense making of the about what to do next (Weick 1995). Designers play three roles as they open doors of opportunity but it should be noted that these roles can be in tension: (1) designers extend managers’ notions of what is possible; (2) they substantiate possibilities by making a glimmer of an idea into a proposal; (3) they fight for their ideas, thereby introducing functional abrasion into management decision-making processes (Bruce & Bessant 2002). Design is a synthetic enterprise, drawing information and ideas from many disciplines. Poggenpohl (2002) argues that design is of prime importance to strategy development as it envisions the future and we all have a stake in the future. It stimulated the artefacts that we desire as solutions to various problems, ideas for how to use technology in more sympathetic ways, or how to provide pleasurable and stimulating information and much more. Forecasting and Design The activities of design and forecasting can combine and result in the proposition of the context of our future and the objects that will inhabit it, all of this in line with the organisations strategy. The use of forecasting approaches in the design process provides a framework for the designer to consider the context of the future. Presented at: Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005 The use of tools such as trend analysis and forecasting are well utilised in many design disciplines. Trend analysis may be described under various guises, such as competitor analysis or market information, but essentially it is being aware of the current and potential tendency. Basic Forecasting Concepts The following definitions are intended to provide a broad understanding rather than exhaustive explanation of future concepts: Trends: A general direction in which something is developing or changing. Lindgren & Bandhold (2003) consider a trend to be something that represents a deeper change than a fad. A trend by definition is has already begun – its existence implies that it already has an inclination. A trend is spotted rather than created (Cornish 2004). This can lead to the situation of ‘self-fulfilling prophesy’ where the act of identifying a trend confirms its existence and thus reinforces its direction or tendency. Forecasting: A forecast is a simple or complex look at the qualities and probabilities of a future event or trend. Coates (1996) notes that futurists differentiate between the forecast, which is generally not point-specific to time or place, and the prediction, a specific, usually quantitative statement about some future outcome. Forecasting seeks to anticipate the future on the basis of historical and current knowledge and trends. Trend Forecasting (or Projection): If we consider that a trend is something that has already begun, being able to identify where it may end is important within many industries. Cornish (2004) reasons that when data is available, a trend can be plotted to show changes through time. Trend lines can be projected into the future often on the basis of the recent rate of change. Such a projection shows where a trend should be at some point in the future assuming there is no shift in the rate of change. Foresight: The human capacity to think ahead and consider, model, create and respond to future eventualities and possibilities. In foresight, experts offer opinions that are aggregated to form a view of possible futures, which can be used to guide policy. Based on knowledge on how things will be, not on how they are now, foresight is more reliable and informative than the simple extrapolation of forecasts, where one overlooked internal factor may throw out the whole calculation (DFFN 2003). These techniques are regularly employed as part of the designer’s everyday toolkit. Depending upon the discipline and specific context of operation, these techniques provide an essential method to both assessing current consumer behaviour (trend/customer/market analysis) and projecting future propositions (in the form of design intent). Understanding how forecasting techniques can complement design activities, i.e. how designers initiate change in man-made things, is essential in developing robust and effective future focussed design approaches. Design forecasting supplements the activities of the product designer by providing a framework for developing, understanding and communicating future scenarios (Evans 2005). Presented at: Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005 A Selection of Forecasting Methods There are a multitude of methods that assist designers in the consideration of the future. The authors do not intend to cover these in detail but provide the following as evidence of the breath of potential forecasting approaches available (Fast Future Ventures 2003). They include: Genius Forecasting; History; Trend projection (Extrapolation, Growth Curves); Correlation; Causal Methods; Polling/Scanning; Technology Forecasting; Scenarios; Delphi Studies; Morphological Models; Relevance Trees; Mission flow diagrams; Technology Assessment; Trend Impact Analysis; Cross-Impact Analysis; Systems Approach; Simulation; Cycles (e.g. Kondratieff); Social Indicator; Chaos Theory A number of alternative ways of looking at the future have been developed that are appropriate to design. These include both qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods and can be applied to many design situations. Some of the more commonly used are: Scenarios/Stories about the future Strategies, goals, intentions, objectives, plans and tactics Possibilities, options and opportunities Off the wall ideas - blue skies thinking Hunches, predictions, guesses and estimates Trends, extrapolations and movements Projections, assumptions, simulations, models and forecasts Alternative arguments, cases, rationales and causes Models of stakeholder behaviour Follow the Leader/Regulator/Market influencers Anticipation and prediction of events or sequences of events Forecasting Phases Horton (1999) identifies successful future orientated activities involve three phases: (1) Inputs, (2) Foresight (and Forecasting), and (3) Outputs and Action. Each phase is more difficult and time consuming, more abstract, and less easy to measure that the preceding one. The basic concept of forecasting is relatively simple, and can be divided into to a number of activities common to all long range forecasting processes (Mercer 1995), (Fahey & Randall 1998), (Lindgren & Bandhold 2003) and (Cornish 2004): 1. Inputs: environmental analysis (or scanning) of a broad range of reliable information sources to base future scenarios upon. This requires allocation of an adequate level of resource to carry out this collection and analysis. Consideration needs to be given to ‘external’ information from the widest range of media combined with ‘internal’ industry specific information Foresight (and Forecasting): results in the actual production of scenarios that identify the long-term forces and consequent events which the organisation must address. Scenarios may range from short, story-like summaries of potential futures to immensely detailed undertakings involving many thousands of man-hours undertaken over a number of years 2. Presented at: Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005 3. Outputs and Action: The development of a robust set of strategies that match the organisation’s limited internal resources with the essentially unlimited external challenges, which it may face. These strategies should best protect, as far as possible, against all major threats potentially facing the organisation, and then exploit the most important opportunities open to it. Essentially this is the organisation’s response to the potential environments or worlds proposed by the scenarios Design and Forecasting Models It has been recognised that forecasting approaches share generic phases that are evident in all future orientated activities. Jonas (2001) (Fig.1) developed this concept and represented these phases as (1) Analysis, (2) Projection, and (3) Synthesis. Here (1) Analysis relates to problem identification and modelling, (2) Projection to the environment and context of future events, and (3) Synthesis to the required need/s to address the scenario. (1) Analysis Scanning, Problem Identification and Modelling (2) Projection Scenarios and possible future states (3) Synthesis Actions required need to address the scenario Fig 1. Phases of the Forecasting Process The design process has many guises and is tailored to specific design disciplines. In the product design domain, again there are many different interpretation of what the design process is. Engineering design, conceptual design, or manufacturing design all bring variations of their process to the table. Fig.2 is a generic representation of the phases of the design process in relation to product design (Ulrich & Eppinger 2000), (Evans 2005): (1) Research Research, problem identification, user requirements, data collection and analysis (2) Idea Generation Concept generation, design iteration and development, refinement, justification of proposal (3) Solution Design proposal, user testing and analysis, launch to market Fig 2. Generic Phases of the Product Design Process Analogies between the product design process and forecasting activities as shown in the above models can be identified. An understanding of how forecasting activities are employed within the design process and the activities of designers can be summarised as: - Analysis v Research: Direct correlation across activities including problem identification, user requirements, scanning, research, data collection and analysis. - Projection v Idea Generation: Correlation here includes scenario development, concept generation, possible future states, design iteration and refinement. Presented at: Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005 - Synthesis v Solution. Correlation here includes actions required need to foster final solution/s, to address the scenario, to achieve the end state, and to enable user testing and analysis. The focus of this process, be it forecasting or design, is dependent upon the type of ‘inputs’ that the process receives. The authors have identified that inputs are a significant factor in establishing the orientation of the activity i.e. whether forecasting or design biased. The actors in the process provide an indication of the type of approach being adopted: - Forecasting activities involve a client led, user focussed, time flexible approach. Here the proposed end user is central to overall activities and although these activities are client led, they are not dominated by what the client ‘wants’ (or think they want). Activities that reveal latent needs that can form the basis of future oriented strategies and activities (Coughlan & Prokopoff 2004). The timeframe for such activities can vary widely from a few hours to a longitudinal study taking years - Design activities involve a time specific, client focussed, user aware approach. The client (or organisation who commissions the design activity) brings to the table a pre-defined agenda that the designer has to address e.g. target cost, manufacturing capability, distribution channels, etc. (Press & Cooper 2003). A development timeframe is evident as a target completion date is usually identified at the outset of design activities. The designer needs to be ‘user aware’ as they are ultimately the end consumer of the design activity but these requirements may be in conflict with the clients agenda Forecasting for Design Futures As already identified, there are a wealth of forecasting approaches available to the designer. No one approach is prevalent in the product design domain. There is evidence that a combination of approaches is more effective and efficient. Forecasting approaches in product design do share some characteristics and help clients (and designers) see the familiar in unfamiliar ways. They place the user in a central role in the research undertaking (Coughlan & Prokopoff 2004): - mock journeys, in which we simulate the experience of a customer, or someone else for whom we are designing - shadowing those involved in a process to note their everyday behaviours, use of tools, communication patterns, and so forth - expert walk-throughs to quickly understand complex processes - spatial observations, to absorb the atmosphere of a location, observe behavioural patterns, and look for evidence of everyday workarounds or innovations that may indicate unmet needs - day-in-the-life surveys to get stakeholders to take note of their own surroundings - and behaviour One important consideration when undertaking forecasting for design futures is the manner in which potential future visions are communicated. This often is an area where a communication breakdown is experienced. The communication of a future scenario, where much of what is being proposed is beyond the ‘normal cognition’ of the potential user, is complex. Reference points from the viewers present (or past) that allow them to Presented at: Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005 fill in the blanks, may be absent or inappropriate in a given future vision. This is a dilemma that is evident in many forecasting activities. How can a future that may be very different to the present be communicated? The key is to help the viewer experience a possible future in tangible ways. Prototyping may be utilised to explore how a product, service or experience will be manifest. It may include physical as well as enactments of processes and service experiences. Feedback can then be upon the reality of an experience, rather than in an interpretation of a description of the same experience. How this is achieved is often left to the inventiveness (and available resources) of the design team. One approach often employed with design is the use of ‘metaphors triggers’ to assist user in their understanding. Metaphors transfer meanings from one usually familiar domain of experiences (the present) to another usually less structured or novel domain (the future). Metaphors are mental operations that can be encouraged by certain visual or linguistic forms. In the theory of metaphors (Lakoff & Johnson 2003): 1. People must be able to see some (usually quite superficial) correspondence between the elements in a source domain (the present) and those in a target domain (the future) The elements in the target domain become (often quite drastically re-) organised in terms of the structure taken from the source domain, thus changing one's perception in the target domain Having organised the target domain, pertinent entailments from the source domain are then transferred. Thus, metaphors can make an operational logic known in a source domain available to a target domain 2. 3. The following is an example of how metaphors have be utilised in product design in a situation where specific reference points for the user were limited: The design of the first personal computer had no own history to draw on. The use of metaphors were able to indicate that: its keyboard came from the typewriter; its screen came from television, and: the processing component had no recognisable precedent and still remains a box with an incomprehensible interior, able to assume any shape. Users knew immediately how to type and expected the lines of text to scroll up on the screen like paper would come out of a typewriter. Good metaphors are self-evident and can bring a great amount of understanding to a given situation. They are a useful tool for designers to communicate future orientated design proposals to potential users. Concluding Remarks Forecasting approaches in product design have yet to be adopted consistently across the sector. Commercial sensitivity means that organisations are reluctant to divulge forecasting methods they have developed to rivals. Many organisations have developed specific approaches that are effective and appropriate to their activities. The authors are currently developing a series of forecasting tools that can be applied across the product Presented at: Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005 design sector and see this as an important development to the wider adoption of forecasting methodologies. The proposed timeframe of any forecasting activity is all important. The further into the future we look, the more conceptual our approach must be and the broader, less defined future visions become. The development of tools that assist in the visualisation and communication of these future visions is all important. The need for a multidisciplinary approach is acknowledged and endorsed by the authors. Forecasting activities must include not only the valued input of designers, but also perspectives from experts from various fields. From here a new discipline may develop. Presented at: Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005 References Bruce, M & Bessant, J (2002) Design in Business. Prentice Hall, UK Coates, J (1996) 2025: Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology. Oakhill, USA Cornish, E (2004) Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, World Futurist Society, USA Coughlan, P & Prokopoff, I (2004) Managing Change, by Design. In: Boland & Collopy. Managing as Designing. Stanford University Press, California. p188-192 DFFN (2003) Design for Future Needs. EC Report Contract No. HPV1-CT-200160038, April 2003 Didsbury, H (1996) Future Vision: Ideas, Insights and Strategies. 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Design and the Social Sciences: Making Connections. Taylor & Francis, London. p66-81 Press, M & Cooper, R (2003) The Design Experience. Ashgate. Aldershot Ulrich, K & Eppinger, S (2000) Product Design and Development. McGraw-Hill Education Presented at: Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005 Weick, K (1995) Sensemaking in Organisations. Thousand Oaks, USA Presented at: Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005 Authors 1. Martyn Evans * School of Art & Design University of Salford Centenary Building Peru Street Salford M3 6EQ United Kingdom E: m.d.evans@salford.ac.uk T: +44 161 295 6159 F: +44 161 835 2453 Simon Sommerville ** Department of Design University of Central Lancashire, UK E: srsommerville@uclan.ac.uk 2. Presented at: Global Chinese Industrial Design Conference 2005, Chang Gung University, Taiwan, November 2005